By Anne North

Cornwall’s Tier 1 Covid-19 status, which resumes today (Wednesday) will come under intense scrutiny in the coming weeks. The official rate of infection per 100,000 population today is only 33.8 – compared with 497.9 in the Tier 3 Medway district in Kent.

As expected, all six of Cornwall’s MPs voted for the 3-Tier system promoted by Boris Johnson last night (Tuesday.) The new regulations have a “sunset” clause which makes them expire on 3^rd February, if MPs have not voted again on the measures before then.

Many Tories are angry that their constituencies are in Tiers 2 or 3, despite having lower rates of infection than Cornwall. The latest cluster map, reporting the seven days to 26^th November, shows that Callington and Pensilva – which is in Tier 1 - has a more severe cluster than anywhere in Plymouth, which is in Tier 2. Callington and Pensilva has a cluster of 21 cases.

With 53 Conservative MPs voting against the government, the Parliamentary arithmetic suggests there is now the potential for the government to be defeated if Opposition parties find a way of making common cause with the Tory rebels.

But scientists have warned that before the national lockdown which started on 5^th November, Cornwall’s rate of infection was doubling every fortnight.

The test data can be more than a week old before it is published. It is therefore likely that Cornwall’s rate per 100,000 will continue to fall, in the short-term, before starting to rise by the end of next week.

Assuming the previous trend is resumed, Cornwall is unlikely to exceed 100 cases per 100,000 before the next cabinet meeting on 17^th December. But by mid-January, Cornwall's numbers could easily be consistent with Tier 2 status, if indeed the whole country is not back in a national lockdown by then.

Today’s news of a vaccine could also trigger behavioural changes, causing the “R” number to increase. The current "R" number for the south west region is 0.9-1.1. Eventually, the vaccine will lead to reductions in “R” – which remains the crucial calculation in making society safe.

Until then, the government is hoping its 3-Tier system of population controls, with unprecedented curtailment of individual liberties, will help prevent the spread of the disease.

The latest Covid-19 cluster map shows that Callington and Pensilva - which is in Tier 1 - has a higher incidence of the disease than anywhere in Plymouth, which is in Tier 2. The whole of Cornwall is in Tier 1, while Medway district in Kent is in Tier 3. All six of Cornwall's MPs voted for the 3-Tier system last night.